Progress or Profit?

Progress is not at all obvious. Here's a quick list to consider.

Hi all,

I've heard from several people now publicly and privately, after my last post, on this notion of modernity and progress. I don’t have the horses at the moment to write an essay, but see below for a rough and ready list.

And let me ask here up front: are we really making progress? Or just thinking in a linear fashion that affirms that defacto position irrespective of evidence? Also, something that hardly ANYONE ever mentions w.r.t technological progress is the obvious fact that technology is a.k.a. a product, owned by a company, so that any of various sci-fi scenarios (computers “take over,” ruin the world, or cure cancer and bring heaven to earth) all involve the absolute supremacy of brand names and companies over human beings. Forgive my French, but want a punk-ass future! Surely we can do better, if even just by pointing it out?

Let me expound. Want heaven in the cloud? It will have “IBM inside,” or Open AI inside or what have you. In fact, most science fiction and futurism is just an extreme version of capitalism, where the only thing that exists are the most expensive and advanced commercial products. What’s the vision here; what’s the hallucination? Consider a techno-futurist’s position. And consider our latest attempt at AI, foundational models and in particular LLMs. They’re multi-million dollar projects now, most of them launched out of Silicon Valley and all of them for profit in one way or the other. Think about this!

Almost every science fiction vision is in reality a story of a big rich company, from Blade Runner (the Tyrell corporation), through Minority Report (PreCrime—technically government, but operates like a large corporation), Robocop (the Omni Consumer Products (OCP) corporation), Total Recall (the Rekall company), or my favorite lesser known Terry Gilliam film, Zero Theorem (the all powerful corporation Mancom). A major problem I have with visions of “progress” that involve advanced technology is simply that it ensures commercialism is absolutely in control and central to everything we do and think about: upload yourself into the “cloud”? Oh my, oh but why? So you can live out your days selling widgets for Company X, no doubt. Progress simply can’t be this. I’d like to think it’s still about human civilization becoming better on some metric—wiser, more thoughtful, even more powerful, sure. But the idea should contain within it the commonsense notion that we wish to liberate ourselves from arbitrary power, not concoct visions of it and gleefully help enslave ourselves.

How possibly can progress be intrinsically tied to technology, when “technology” is and seemingly will never be anything other than a product? I’ve got bigger aspirations for the future of the human race than this. Here’s a rough list, not really anymore tied to my discussion here, but I hope still of value:

The good stuff (find your inner Pinker):

Things That Got Better Over the Last Few Centuries:

• Medical advancements:

  • Discovery of antibiotics like penicillin (1928), vaccines, and modern surgical techniques have significantly reduced mortality rates and increased life expectancy.

  • Public health initiatives like clean water, sanitation, and vaccination programs have eradicated or reduced the impact of deadly diseases like smallpox and polio.

• Technological innovation:

  • Electricity, the internet, and telecommunications revolutionized global connectivity, making information and communication instantaneous and widely accessible.

  • The Industrial Revolution led to mass production, improving access to goods and services.

• Human rights:

  • Abolition of slavery in most parts of the world and advancements in civil rights have led to greater freedom and equality for many marginalized groups.

  • Women’s rights, including suffrage and greater access to education and employment, have improved gender equality globally.

• Education:

  • Universal education in many countries has led to widespread literacy and the democratization of knowledge.

  • Access to higher education has expanded dramatically, enabling more people to contribute to science, culture, and the economy.

• Global poverty reduction:

  • Extreme poverty has been significantly reduced, especially in parts of Asia and Africa, due to economic growth and international development efforts.

• Decline in global violent crime rates:

  • Over the long term, violent crime has decreased in many parts of the world due to better law enforcement, social stability, and governance.

  • Although urban crime exists, many cities have lower homicide rates than they did in past centuries.

Things That Got Worse Over the Last Few Centuries:

• War and violence:

  • The 20th century was one of the bloodiest centuries in human history, with two World Wars, genocides like the Holocaust, and countless civil conflicts. An estimated 108 million people died in wars during the 20th century alone.

  • Modern warfare’s capacity for destruction—nuclear weapons, chemical warfare—has introduced unprecedented risks to human survival.

  • The rise of terrorism in the 21st century has further complicated global security, leading to long-lasting conflicts and displacements.

• Environmental degradation:

  • Industrialization and overconsumption have led to significant environmental damage, including deforestation, air and water pollution, and loss of biodiversity.

  • Climate change, driven by fossil fuel consumption, has become a global crisis with severe long-term consequences.

• Mental health decline:

  • Rates of depression, anxiety, and loneliness have risen dramatically, particularly in developed nations. Modern living, driven by technology and social media, is often blamed for contributing to this trend.

• Erosion of community and social bonds:

  • Industrialization and urbanization have led to the fragmentation of close-knit communities and traditional family structures.

  • People are more socially isolated, with the rise of digital communication replacing face-to-face interaction.

• Overreliance on technology:

  • Basic skills, like memory retention, handwriting, and even basic arithmetic, have declined as technology takes over many of these functions.

  • The loss of jobs in traditional sectors due to automation has led to increasing economic inequality and job insecurity for many.

• Cultural homogenization:

  • Globalization has spread Western consumer culture, often leading to the loss of indigenous cultures, languages, and traditions.

  • The dominance of large tech companies and social media platforms has homogenized cultural expression, limiting diversity in media and art.

• Health trade-offs:

  • While we've eradicated many diseases, the modern lifestyle has contributed to rising rates of chronic illnesses such as obesity, diabetes, and cardiovascular disease.

• Decline in basic civility and discourse:

  • Political polarization and the rise of toxic online behavior have eroded civil discourse, making it harder to engage in meaningful discussions or compromise on important issues.

• Continued global conflict:

  • Despite some periods of peace, wars and civil conflicts persist in various regions, such as Syria, Yemen, and Ukraine, with millions displaced and hundreds of thousands dead.

So, what’s your notion of progress? And what stands in our way of achieving it?

Erik J. Larson