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Fukitol's avatar

The thing is the forest is still there, whether you can see it or not, and will defy every effort made to reduce it to a mere collection of objects. There is no tech dystopia or utopia coming, only the consequences of attempting to make one: a devastating lesson in the impossibility of micromanaging fractal complexity.

To be a little less vague both the tech cultists and the doomsayers accept the fundamental technocratic premise that we understand a lot more than we actually do, and are in control of a lot more than we are. All evidence points to the contrary: that every single grand technocratic project has failed catastrophically; every single time they thought they had it all figured out; and it's vanishingly unlikely that they've got it all figured out this time, given results of all past experiments.

Imagine instead a future where this premise is fundamentally incorrect, and the relentless undermining of every known-good state of every aspect of society will lead not to its New and Improved (tm) replacement, but collapse and regression to an earlier, lower-"progress", less complex, fragile, and interdependent state of being. That's where we're going. And after a period of adjustment, it's going to be pretty nice.

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Contarini's avatar

The whole notion that we will end up with either a technologically controlled utopia, or some kind of panopticon AI-supervised dystopia, but either way with the machines in charge, is depressing, but also boring, and highly unlikely. Machinery never works as well as people think. Vendors, overhype what their gear can do, people fail to follow the manual and break things, upgrades are installed that actually make things worse, etc. People still need to make it all go, which means it will never be perfect, neither perfectly good, nor perfectly awful.

One science fiction writer who understood this was Philip K. Dick. In his novel The Penultimate Truth, there is a supposedly fully automated underground civilization, living in big cylinders. But we find out that there’s one old guy who is the only person who knows how to keep the machinery going, and he is plugging things and keeping it working, but if he died, it would all stop. So the protagonist, when he finds out the old guy is dying, violates all the protocols, and comes to the surface to get a prosthetic pancreas, and he finds out that everything he was told and that he believed wasn’t true. But the image of a futuristic world that is only kept going by some guy, down in the basement, with a greasy workbench, and old tools, and tape, and spare parts pulled off of stuff that’s not being used anymore, that is how any future world, any world reliant on technology, will always have to work. Even chief engineer, Scott on the Starship Enterprise in the original series worked like this.

So if the Utopia and the dystopia are not going to happen, what will? More ordinary human muddling through, that’s what will happen. Some of it will be great, some of it will be destructive, but hopefully the net direction, the sum of all vectors, will be positive.

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